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The U.S. Crime Puzzle: A Comparative Perspective on U.S. Crime and Punishment

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  • Holger Spamann

Abstract

This paper compares actual U.S. crime and incarceration rates to predicted rates from cross-country regressions. Global cross-country regressions of crime and incarceration on background characteristics explain much of the variation between other countries. But the estimated models predict only one-fourth of U.S. incarceration and not all of U.S. crime. The coincidence of the non-negative U.S. crime residuals with the very large positive U.S. incarceration residual constitutes a puzzle. The two pieces fit together only if the residual U.S. incarceration does not contribute to a reduction in crime, except to the extent an omitted criminogenic factor pushes up U.S. crime. The paper quantifies this relationship. Drawing on additional evidence from comparative and U.S.-specific data, it argues that the puzzle's most plausible solution combines low effectiveness of mass incarceration with omitted criminogenic factors such as U.S. neighborhood segregation.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Spamann, 2016. "The U.S. Crime Puzzle: A Comparative Perspective on U.S. Crime and Punishment," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 33-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:amlawe:v:18:y:2016:i:1:p:33-87.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/aler/ahv015
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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Friehe & Thomas J. Miceli, 2017. "On Punishment Severity and Crime Rates," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 464-485.
    2. Murat C. Mungan, 2017. "Over-incarceration and disenfranchisement," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 377-395, September.

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