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Structural Changes in the Time Series of Food Prices and Volatility Measurement

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  • Hyun Joung Jin
  • Taeho Kim

Abstract

Volatility in product prices is of considerable interest in the food and agricultural policy arena. Standard deviation (SD) type of measures, including variance and the coefficient of variation, have been commonly used for estimating realized volatility. These methods are relatively simple to calculate and focus on the width of the data. Despite these merits, they have a shortcoming in that the statistics can be amplified when the time series is nonstationary. This study suggests a new way to measure price variation. The structural breaks in the unconditional mean of a time series are determined, and then the conventional SD type of measures for each regime are calculated. This method addresses the weak point of the SD type of measure and is a competitive alternative to the conditional variance type or the trend deviation type of measures when the time series at comparison have notably different data-generating processes or have nonstationarity. Copyright 2012, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyun Joung Jin & Taeho Kim, 2012. "Structural Changes in the Time Series of Food Prices and Volatility Measurement," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(4), pages 929-944.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:94:y:2012:i:4:p:929-944
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aas026
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    Cited by:

    1. Carl GAIGNÉ & Cathie LAROCHE DUPRAZ & Alan MATTHEWS, 2015. "Thirty years of European research on international trade in food and agricultural products," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 96(1), pages 91-130.
    2. James Rude & Marie‐Hélène Felt & Edgar Twine, 2016. "Detecting COOL Impacts on United States–Canada Bilateral Hog and Pork Trade Flows," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 272-288, April.
    3. Ayinde, Opeyemi Eyitayo & Ilori, T. E. & Ayinde, K. & Babatunde, R. O., 2015. "Analysis of the Behaviour of Prices of Major Staple Foods in West Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Giray Gozgor, 2019. "Effects of the agricultural commodity and the food price volatility on economic integration: an empirical assessment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 173-202, January.

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