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No News Is Good News: Stochastic Parameters versus Media Coverage Indices in Demand Models after Food Scares

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  • Mario Mazzocchi

Abstract

We develop a stochastic parameter approach to model the time-varying impacts of food scares on consumption, as an alternative to the inclusion of news coverage indices in the demand function. We empirically test the methodology on data from four food scares, the 1982 heptachlor milk contamination in Oahu, Hawaii and the bovine spongiform encephalopathy and two Escherichia coli scares on U.S. meat demand over the period 1993–9. Results show that the inclusion of time-varying parameters in demand models enables the capturing of the impact of food safety information and provides better short-term forecasts. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2006.00891.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 88 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 727-741

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:88:y:2006:i:3:p:727-741

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Cited by:
  1. Jae H Kim & Iain Fraser & Rob J. Hyndman, 2010. "Improved Interval Estimation of Long Run Response from a Dynamic Linear Model: A Highest Density Region Approach," Working Papers 2010.06, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
  2. Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Food scare crises and price volatility: The case of the BSE in Spain," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 179-185, April.
  3. Saak, Alexander, 2011. "Collective reputation, social norms, and participation:," IFPRI discussion papers 1107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Beach, Robert H. & Zhen, Chen, 2008. "Consumer Purchasing Behavior in Response to Media Coverage of Avian Influenza," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6750, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  5. Radwan, Amr & Gil, Jose Maria & Ben Kaabia, Monia & Serra, Teresa, 2008. "Modeling The Impact Of Food Safety Information On Meat Demand In Spain," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6672, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Mu, Jianhong H. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2010. "Does Negative Information Always Hurt Meat Demand? An Examination of Avian Influenza Information Impacts on U.S," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116450, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  7. Radwan, Amr & Gil, Jose Maria & Ben Kaabia, Monia & Serra, Teresa, 2009. "Food Safety Information And Meat Demand In Spain," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51540, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  8. Mutondo, Joao E. & Henneberry, Shida Rastegari, 2007. "A Source-Differentiated Analysis of U.S. Meat Demand," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(03), December.
  9. Hassouneh, Islam & Serra, Teresa & Gil, Jose Maria, 2009. "Price transmission in the Spanish bovine sector: the BSE effect," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 50121, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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