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Ranking Crop Yield Models Using Out-of-Sample Likelihood Functions

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  • Bailey Norwood
  • Matthew C. Roberts
  • Jayson L. Lusk

Abstract

There has been considerable debate regarding which probability distribution best represents crop yields. This study ranks six yield densities based on their out-of-sample forecasting performance. The forecasting ability for each density was ranked according to its likelihood function value when observed at out-of-sample observations. Results show that a semiparametric model offered by Goodwin and Ker best forecasts county average yields. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.0002-9092.2004.00651.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 86 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1032-1043

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:86:y:2004:i:4:p:1032-1043

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tolhurst, Tor & Ker, Alan P., 2013. "On Technological Change in Crop Yields," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151269, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Zheng, Qiujie & Wang, H. Holly & Shi, Qinghua, 2008. "Estimating Farm Level Multivariate Yield Distribution Using Nonparametric Methods," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6509, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  3. Octavio A. Ramirez & Carlos A. Carpio, 2012. "Premium estimation inaccuracy and the actuarial performance of the US crop insurance program," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 72(1), pages 117-133, March.
  4. Lu, Yue & Ramirez, Octavio A. & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Knight, Thomas O. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2008. "Empirically Evaluating the Flexibility of the Johnson Family of Distributions: A Crop Insurance Application," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(1), April.
  5. Drichoutis, Andreas & Lusk, Jayson, 2012. "Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria," MPRA Paper 38951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Lanoue, Christopher & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Woodard, Joshua D. & Paulson, Nicholas D., 2010. "Evaluating Yield Models for Crop Insurance Rating," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61761, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  7. David A. Hennessy, 2009. "Crop Yield Expectation Stochastic Process with Beta Distribution as Limit, A," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 09-wp501, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  8. Tack, Jesse, 2013. "A Nested Test for Common Yield Distributions with Applications to U.S. Corn," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(1), April.
  9. Xiaodong Du & Hongli Feng & David A. Hennessy, 2014. "Rationality of Choices in Subsidized Crop Insurance Markets," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 14-wp545, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  10. Kapiamba, Luabeya F., 2005. "Modeling Heteroskedasticity of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Normality," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19475, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  11. Bokusheva, Raushan & Breustedt, Gunnar & Heidelbach, Olaf, 2006. "Measurement and Comparison of Risk Reduction by Means of Farm Yield, Area Yield, and Weather Index Crop Insurance Schemes - The Case of Kazakhstani Wheat Farms," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25523, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  12. Ramirez, Octavio A. & McDonald, Tanya U., 2006. "The Expanded Johnson System: A Highly Flexible Crop Yield Distribution Model," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21455, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  13. Norwood, F. Bailey & Lusk, Jayson L. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2004. "Model Selection for Discrete Dependent Variables: Better Statistics for Better Steaks," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(03), December.
  14. Sengupta, Sanchita & Kurkalova, Lyubov A. & Kling, Catherine L., 2006. "Avoiding biases from data-dependent specification search: an application to a tillage choice model," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21399, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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