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Optimal Sequential Grain Marketing Decisions under Risk Aversion and Price Uncertainty

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  • Leroy Blakeslee

Abstract

A method is developed to find sequences of expected utility maximizing decisions under risk aversion when random elements are time-dependent and additive separable utility of income is implausible. A Taylor-series approximation to expected utility is used. In an application to marketing stored wheat, expected seasonal sales patterns, early fractional sales of total inventory for risk reduction, and negative skewness in resulting income distributions are noted. Sensitivity to the number of income distribution moments used to approximate expected utility is examined. Six moments produce a good approximation. Use of only mean and variance can give doubtful results. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Leroy Blakeslee, 1997. "Optimal Sequential Grain Marketing Decisions under Risk Aversion and Price Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1140-1152.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:79:y:1997:i:4:p:1140-1152
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1244271
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    Cited by:

    1. Wojciechowski, Jan & Ames, Glenn C.W. & Turner, Steven C. & Miller, Bill R., 2000. "Marketing Of Cotton Fiber In The Presence Of Yield And Price Risk," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Murray-Prior, Roy B. & Wright, Vic, 2004. "Use of strategies and decision rules by Australian wool producers to manage uncertainty," AFBM Journal, Australasian Farm Business Management Network, vol. 1, pages 1-16.
    3. Jens‐Peter Loy & Thore Holm & Carsten Steinhagen & Thomas Glauben, 2015. "Seasonal Quality Premiums for Wheat: A Case Study for Northern Germany," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 63-75, January.
    4. Murray-Prior, Roy B. & Wright, Vic, 2001. "Influence of strategies and heuristics on farmers’ response to change under uncertainty," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 45(4), pages 1-26.
    5. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2001. "Income-Enhancing And Risk-Reducing Properties Of Marketing Practices," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20613, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2001. "Income Enhancing and Risk Management Properties of Marketing Practices," Working Papers 127653, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.

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