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Approximately Optimal Carryover Levels for Wheat in the United States

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  • C. Robert Taylor
  • Hovav Talpaz

Abstract

This paper presents results of stochastic simulations of adherence to a first-period first-order certainty equivalence decision rule for approximately optimal wheat stocks in the United States. The decision rule is obtained by maximizing a first-order approximation of the discounted sum of expected producers' plus consumers' surplus less storage costs over a long-time horizon. For comparative purposes, stochastic simulations of the present system for holding stocks are also given in the paper. Stock levels under the present system were found to be higher than the certainty equivalence stock levels.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Robert Taylor & Hovav Talpaz, 1979. "Approximately Optimal Carryover Levels for Wheat in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(1), pages 32-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:61:y:1979:i:1:p:32-40.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1239497
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    Cited by:

    1. Gardiner, Walter H. & Dixit, Praveen M, 1987. "Price Elasticity of Export Demand: Concepts and Estimates," Foreign Agricultural Economic Report (FAER) 305286, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Holt, Matthew T., 1991. "A Multi-Market Bounded Prices Model Under Rational Expectations: The Case of Corn and Soybeans," Staff Papers 200537, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    3. Stennek, Johan, 1999. "The expected consumer's surplus as a welfare measure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 265-288, August.
    4. Koo, Won W. & Burt, Oscar R., 1982. "U.S. Wheat Storage Control Under Joint Criteria Of Mean Benefits And Price Variation," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, July.
    5. Kennedy, John O.S., 1979. "Optimal Buffer Stock Policies For Wheat At The World Level," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 23(3), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Burt, Oscar R., 1982. "Dynamic Programming: Has Its Day Arrived?," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Trapp, James N., 1980. "Guidelines for Making Commercial Wheat Storage Decisions," 1980 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois 279239, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. John C. Quiggin & Jock R. Anderson, 1981. "Price Bands and Buffer Funds," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(1), pages 67-73, March.

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