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Crop Yields: Random, Cyclical, or Bunchy?

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  • Clifton B. Luttrell
  • R. Alton Gilbert

Abstract

This paper investigates whether changes in weather have random effects on crop yields. The data are yield series of several crops for the United States, individual major producing states, and major producing areas. Statistical tests show little evidence of nonrandomness in these series. There is almost no evidence of cycles or bunchiness prior to 1932, none for national average yields or the weighted average for major producing areas. Since 1932 there is some evidence of autocorrelation; however, this appears to reflect the uneven application rate of high yielding inputs, such as fertilizer and hybrid seed.

Suggested Citation

  • Clifton B. Luttrell & R. Alton Gilbert, 1976. "Crop Yields: Random, Cyclical, or Bunchy?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(3), pages 521-531.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:58:y:1976:i:3:p:521-531.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1239269
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Moss, Charles B. & Shonkwiler, J. S., 1991. "Modeling Yield With Stochastic Trend And Nonnormal Errors," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271165, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Tor N. Tolhurst & Alan P. Ker, 2015. "On Technological Change in Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 137-158.
    3. Ash, Mark S. & Lin, William, 1987. "Regional Crop Yield Response for U.S. Grains," Agricultural Economic Reports 308033, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Pope, C. Arden, III, 1981. "The dynamics of crop yields in the U. S. Corn Belt as effected by weather and technological progress," ISU General Staff Papers 198101010800008463, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Lin, Kuang-Hsing Terence & Seaver, Stanley K., 1978. "Were U.S. Crop Yields Random In Recent Years?," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 1-4, December.
    6. Tweeten, Luther G. & Simpson, Scott, 1978. "Instability In U.S. Feed Grains Supply And Utilization," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 1-5, December.
    7. Fackler, Paul L., 1989. "Modeling Trend and Higher Moment Properties of U.S. Corn Yields," 1989 Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk Meeting, April 9-12, 1989, Sanibel Island, Florida 271523, Regional Research Projects > S-232: Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk.
    8. Mason, Charles Edwin, IV, 2000. "Estimation and attenuation of reinsurance risk in the crop insurance market," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000013703, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Geigel, Joanne M. & Sundquist, W. Burt, 1984. "A Review And Evaluation Of Weather-Crop Yield Models," Staff Papers 13699, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.

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