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Adjusting Dynamic Models to Improve Their Predictive Ability

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  • Richard J. Crom
  • Wilbur R. Maki

Abstract

Dynamic models are a valuable research tool for analysis and projection. However, cumulative error may build up sufficiently to make the model virtually useless for either purpose. Several adjustments in dynamic models intended to improve their predictive ability are presented in this paper along with criteria for making these adjustments. Examples of these adjustments are shown as they were used in developing a semi-annual model of the livestock-meat economy. The research implications for adjustments in models after validation to simulate results of proposed policies or changes in the economic parameters of the model are examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Crom & Wilbur R. Maki, 1965. "Adjusting Dynamic Models to Improve Their Predictive Ability," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 47(4), pages 963-972.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:47:y:1965:i:4:p:963-972.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1236337
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    Cited by:

    1. Craddock, William John, 1966. "The effect of grain price on the profitability of livestock production --an econometric simulation," ISU General Staff Papers 196601010800006352, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Crom, Richard, 1970. "A Dynamic Price-Output Model of the Beef and Pork Sectors," Technical Bulletins 171854, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. True, Arthur W. & Hardaway, Irene L., 1967. "Economics of Agriculture -- Reports and Publications Issued or Sponsored by USDA's Economic Research Service, October 1965-September 1966," Miscellaneous Publications 321238, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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