Roadmapping Vs. S-Curves: How To Switch To The Next S-Curve

There are two very important tools in managing technology: roadmapping and s-curves. Roadmapping can be a very effective tool to evolutionarily advance an existing technology. Conversely the idea of s-curves aids managers in the decision to make a revolutionary change to a new technology. The semiconductor industry is a prime example of a very successful roadmapping exercise. However, with continued scaling traditional microfabrication based on top-down lithography techniques becomes exceedingly expensive and complex. Many academic and industrial researchers work on alternative technologies to switch to the next s-curve. This work examines a first order approach to analyze such new technologies. The case of bottom-up nano-assembly is used as an illustration. Its merits are contrasted with current technology to come to a first assessment of its viability as the next s-curve. However, this is only a starting step to guide managers and technologists into the right direction when investigating new technologies.