Stylized Facts Of Romanian Business Cycle. An Empirical Investigation (Ii)

If the more or less regulate moves of the macroeconomic variables are accepted by the economists as a reality, the problem of measuring the aggregate level of the economy in direct correlation with these fluctuations is much more difficult due to the numerous variables involved.The way these variables move in time is very different from a period to another as well as from a country to another. While some variables have already reached their maximum level, others are on their descendent slope. This is the reason why the measurement problem of the aggregate level of the macroeconomic activity deserves our attention. Finding the patterns macroeconomic variables move together and influence each other is important both as a theoretical challenge, but for its practical utility as well. Depending on the result of the measurement process, the authorities are able to conduct their economic policies. More precisely, the monetary or fiscal authority will act differently if the economy is in recession or in expansion.These are the reasons for which a very important phase in the study of the cycle is its descriptive analysis, which is realized by focusing on certain aspects, such as: the length and magnitude, the correlation of the economic variables with the reference series, the study of the cyclical indicators, the analysis of the relative variability of economic series, the diagnose and prevision based on the cyclical indicators.