Green transition: what have CESEE EU member states achieved so far?

Scientific evidence and political commitments require decisive measures to both mitigate and adapt to climate change. This stock-taking exercise sheds light on the green transition to climate neutrality in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE), comparing the EU members in CESEE in the aggregate with the group of other EU countries. Over the last three decades, CESEE economies have converged substantially to EU averages with respect to both carbon intensity and income per capita – on the back of their profound and painful restructuring process mainly in the first decade of their transition to market economies. Analyzing the development of greenhouse gas emissions in CESEE from 1990 to 2018, we find that energy intensity dropped markedly, the share of transport sector emissions increased sharply and reliance on coal, while still substantial, declined. Industry electricity prices before taxes in CESEE are roughly on a par with the EU average, but household energy prices before taxes are still moderately lower in nominal – but clearly higher – in real terms (adjusted for income levels). At the same time, (implicit) CO2 prices are below EU average levels. Comparing EU member states’ climate policy commitments, we find that both the CESEE and the other EU members are very likely to have met the long-standing targets for 2020 on aggregate, with the targets for the CESEE region having been relatively modest. We conclude that despite their still lagging behind somewhat, CESEE economies are generally well positioned to advance their green transition at relatively low costs and to compete for market shares in green industries. However, all EU member states must step up their efforts in the coming years to have a reasonable chance of reaching their net-zero emission target in 2050 and the intermediate target to reduce net emissions by 55% up to 2030. Our assessment is relevant for the ongoing drive in the EU to mobilize finance for sustainable growth – a drive which involves central banks and supervisors in banks’ home and host countries.