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Avoiding debt traps: Fiscal consolidation, financial backstops and structural reforms

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  • Pier Carlo Padoan
  • Urban Sila
  • Paul van den Noord

Abstract

In this article we develop a simple and stylised analytical framework, which is both tractable and feasible to estimate, capturing several key dimensions of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. We use it to examine if and how a combination of fiscal consolidation, structural reform and financial backstops can help countries, notably the southern euro-area countries, to escape from the debt trap. Our analysis confirms that the loss of fiscal policy space in countries trapped in bad dynamics inevitably requires that fiscal action be directed towards consolidation despite some output loss in the short run. In particular, reducing debt levels breeds stronger growth and results in lower sovereign risk premia. We identify also a very important role for structural reform to help countries escape from bad dynamics. Last but not least, we find that financial backstops are helpful, but only to “buy time”. This additional time must be used productively, for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms to bear fruit as well as to make progress with institutional reforms of the European monetary union.

Suggested Citation

  • Pier Carlo Padoan & Urban Sila & Paul van den Noord, 2012. "Avoiding debt traps: Fiscal consolidation, financial backstops and structural reforms," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2012(1), pages 151-177.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecokac:5k8xbnjbn9hl
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2012-5k8xbnjbn9hl
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    Cited by:

    1. Adler, Gustavo & Lizarazo, Sandra, 2015. "Intertwined sovereign and bank solvencies in a simple model of self-fulfilling crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 428-448.
    2. Balẳ Égert, 2015. "The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3756-3770, July.
    3. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    4. Blessy Augustine & O.P.C. Muhammed Rafi, 2021. "Public Debt - Economic Growth: Evidence of a Non-linear Relationship," BASE University Working Papers 11/2021, BASE University, Bengaluru, India.
    5. Ivo Arnold, 2021. "An Interest Stabilisation Mechanism to Unburden the ECB," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(5), pages 274-277, September.
    6. Kudrin, A. & Gurvich, E., 2015. "Government Stimulus or Economic Incentives?," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 179-186.
    7. Boris Cournède & Antoine Goujard & Álvaro Pina, 2013. "How to Achieve Growth- and Equity-friendly Fiscal Consolidation?: A Proposed Methodology for Instrument Choice with an Illustrative Application to OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1088, OECD Publishing.
    8. Ran Bi & Mr. Haonan Qu & Mr. James Roaf, 2013. "Assessing the Impact and Phasing of Multi-year Fiscal Adjustment: A General Framework," IMF Working Papers 2013/182, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Beetsma, Roel & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2014. "An analysis of eurobonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 91-111.
    10. Carrera, Jorge & de la Vega, Pablo, 2021. "The impact of income inequality on public debt," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    11. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Grzegorz Parosa & Andrzej Rzońca, 2022. "Fiscal tensions and risk premium," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 833-896, August.
    12. Ewa Aksman, 2017. "Do Poverty and Income Inequality Affect Public Debt?," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 79-93.
    13. Yun Jung Kim & Jing Zhang, 2021. "The Relationship Between Debt and Output," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 230-257, March.
    14. Balázs Egert, 2013. "The 90% public debt threshold: The rise and fall of a stylised fact," Working Papers hal-04141189, HAL.
    15. John Farrugia & Owen, Grech, 2013. "Assessing the sustainability of Maltese government debt," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2013, Central Bank of Malta.
    16. Castro, Gabriela & Félix, Ricardo M. & Júlio, Paulo & Maria, José R., 2015. "Unpleasant debt dynamics: Can fiscal consolidations raise debt ratios?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 276-294.
    17. Agnello, Luca & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "Can re-regulation of the financial sector strike back public debt?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 159-171.
    18. Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson & Paul van den Noord, 2013. "The Icelandic banking collapse - was the optimal policy path chosen?," Economics wp62, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    19. Ikonen, Pasi, 2017. "Financial depth, debt, and growth," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e51.
    20. D'Andrea, Sara, 2022. "A Meta-Analysis on the Debt-Growth Relationship," MPRA Paper 114409, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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