The Determinants of Scoring in NFL Games and Beating the Over/Under Line
AbstractIn this paper we attempt to predict the total points scored in National Football League (NFL) games for the 2005-2006 season. Separate regression equations are identified for predicting points for the home and away teams in individual games based on information known prior to the games. The predictions from the regression equations (updated weekly) are then compared to the over/under line on individual NFL games in a wagering experiment to determine if a successful betting strategy can be identified. All predictions in this paper are out-of-sample. Using this methodology, we find that several successful wagering procedures could have been applied to the 2005-2006 NFL season. We also estimate a single equation to predict the over/under line for individual games. That is, we test to see if the variables we have collected and formulated are important in predicting the line for NFL games.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by New York State Economics Association (NYSEA) in its journal New York Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 40 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Roger Vergin, 2001. "Overreaction in the NFL point spread market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 497-509.
- Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2002. "Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule: Evidence From Totals on Professional Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(3), pages 256-263, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Eric Doviak).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.