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Predicted Number of the Rural Population by 2020 by Planning Regions

Author

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  • Minka Anastasova – Chopeva

    (Institute of Agricultural Economics, Sofia, Bulgaria)

Abstract

The serious challenges to the implementation of the Programme for Rural Development in the new programming period 2014 2020 (PRD) raises due to the heavy demographic crisis of country and especially of the rural areas. This defines the purpose of the article. On the one hand, the main forecasts the expected total number of rural population incl. in sex-age groups by 2020 for six planning regions are presented and analyzed. On the other hand, recommendations regarding the need for urgent, complex and unusual measures to get out of the demographic crisis are made. The component method of population is used for preparing the forecasts. Years from 2001 to 2010. are selected for basic period. The specific features of the statistical regions in relation to the rural demographic development are discovered. A further tendency of the rural population decrease and continuing village depopulation are contoured. This trend is typical for all planning areas but level and pace of ongoing demographic processes are different. The impact of population growth on demographic development in the rural areas will continue to have a dominant influence than the impact of migration processes. The summarizing conclusions from analysis of the expected demographic situation in rural areas are derived. An attempt to lay down recommendations to solve this with essential, as complex and difficult problem is made. Among them is a reasonable idea of creating a special fund under certain requirements to help the demographic salvation of Bulgarian villages. Among them is motivated the idea of creating a special fund subject to certain requirements to help the demographic rescue of Bulgarian villages.

Suggested Citation

  • Minka Anastasova – Chopeva, 2014. "Predicted Number of the Rural Population by 2020 by Planning Regions," Ikonomiceski i Sotsialni Alternativi, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 43-57, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:nwe:iisabg:y:2014:i:3:p:43-57
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic rescue; rural population;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools

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