Brexit: The Economic And Political Impact Of A Possible Withdrawal Of Great Britain’S From The European Union

Great Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union would not only change the internal political climate, but it could have important political repercussions within the EU and also on its relations with other European Community’s countries. Also, it could stimulate the other EU Member States to re-evaluate the terms and conditions of their membership. The same applies if Great Britain fails to renegotiate these terms and conditions while keeping the status of EU member. A priority for the UK is to maintain close trade relations with the EU, even if politically it would opt for withdrawal. In the event of possible withdrawal from the EU, Great Britain could conclude an agreement with the EU following the example of a customs union (after Turkey’s model). In this case, it would not be obliged to contribute to the EU budget or accept immigration from the EU member states. Last but not least, from a geopolitical point of view, Great Britain's exit from the EU could be seen externally as a sign of decline, EU losing its financial, economic, political and military powerhouse. From this point of view, the European Union itself have a significant political and economic interest to conclude a mutually beneficial agreement with Great Britain considering that it could terminate its EU membership.