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Declining Female Labor Supply Elasticities in the United States and Implications for Tax Policy: Evidence From Panel Data

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  • Anil Kumar
  • Che-Yuan Liang

Abstract

Recent work has provided compelling evidence of a long-term decline in U.S. female labor supply elasticities with respect to wages and income. While previous work used cross-sectional data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we reexamine the trend for married women using panel data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) from 1980 to 2006. We find evidence in support of a long-term decline in married females’ labor supply elasticities on the participation margin but less evidence in support of such a decline on the hours margin. We also investigate the implications of these results for the welfare effects of tax reforms. Policy simulations indicate that shrinking elasticities, mostly concentrated on the participation margin, have contributed to a dramatic decline in the welfare gains from actual and potential tax reforms since the 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang, 2016. "Declining Female Labor Supply Elasticities in the United States and Implications for Tax Policy: Evidence From Panel Data," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 69(3), pages 481-516, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:69:y:2016:i:3:p:481-516
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2016.3.01
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    Cited by:

    1. Ganghua Mei & Lei Yue, 2022. "Labor supply and time use: evidence from cohabiting women in the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(44), pages 5133-5158, September.
    2. Yuval Mazar & Yaniv Reingewertz, 2023. "The effect of child allowances on female labour supply: evidence from Israel," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 882-910, July.
    3. Takeshi Yagihashi & Juan Du, 2023. "Intertemporal elasticity of substitution with leisure margin," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1473-1504, December.
    4. Liang, Che-Yuan, 2018. "Taxes and Household Labor Supply: Estimating Distributional Effects of Nonlinear Prices on Multidimensional Choice," Working Paper Series 2018:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    5. Abby Alpert & David Powell, 2020. "Estimating Intensive And Extensive Tax Responsiveness," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(4), pages 1855-1873, October.
    6. Luis García & Erika Collantes, 2017. "Effect of the Juntos social program on female labor supply in Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2017-448, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    7. Chirvi, Malte, 2019. "Arbeiten Frauen aufgrund des Ehegattensplittings weniger? Eine empirische Untersuchung für Deutschland," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 241, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    8. Jane G. Gravelle & Sean Lowry, 2016. "The Affordable Care Act, Labor Supply, and Social Welfare," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 69(4), pages 863-882, December.
    9. Chirvi, Malte, 2017. "Arbeiten Frauen aufgrund des Ehegattensplittings weniger? Ein quasi-experimenteller Ansatz für Deutschland," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 217, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    10. Lundberg, Jacob & Norell, John, 2018. "Taxes, benefits and labour force participation: A survey of the quasi-experimental literature," Ratio Working Papers 313, The Ratio Institute.
    11. Naveen Singhal, 2021. "Discrete Choice Models for Estimating Labor Supply: Working Paper 2021-04," Working Papers 57027, Congressional Budget Office.
    12. Yuval Mazar, 2018. "The effect of child allowances on the labor supply: Evidence from the early 2000s," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2018.07, Bank of Israel.

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