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Box A: US inflation - peaking soon?

Author

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  • Naisbitt, Barry
  • Macchiarelli, Corrado
  • Sanchez Juanino, Patricia

Abstract

Over the past four months, CPI inflation in the US has run at over 5 per cent year-on-year, the highest since mid-2008, and was 5.4 per cent in September. Prior to 2008, the previous time headline CPI inflation was this high was in 1991. A key question of policy debate is whether this increase in inflation will be just temporary, as in 2008, the start of a prolonged period of inflation above the 2 per cent target, or worse still whether inflation will continue to escalate as it did in the 1970s and early 1980s. Either of the latter two outcomes will represent a significant monetary accommodation by the Federal Reserve and a departure from the recent monetary policy practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Naisbitt, Barry & Macchiarelli, Corrado & Sanchez Juanino, Patricia, 2021. "Box A: US inflation - peaking soon?," National Institute Global Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 4, pages 24-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrb:i:4:y:2021:p:24-31
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