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Foreword

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  • Millard, Stephen

Abstract

The global economy is going through a transition towards slower trend growth, having seen a period of high growth driven by the opening of the Chinese economy and globalisation more generally, together with high productivity growth in the BRIC economies as they caught up with the technological frontier. Growth in China and India will slow as these economies have caught up with, and in some cases, overtaken the West and this will mean lower growth in emerging economies more generally. Meanwhile, the major advanced economies are moving from a period of ultra-low interest rates back to a period of more 'normal', ie, positive, real interest rates, which will require households and firms to adjust. And the global economy seems to be fragmenting as new trading blocks are formed based on geopolitics (eg, China-Russia) or locality (CPTPP) while trade between these blocks falls (eg, US-China trade war).

Suggested Citation

  • Millard, Stephen, 2023. "Foreword," National Institute Global Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 12, pages 1-3.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrb:i:12:y:2023:p:3
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