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High Aversion to Stochastic Time Preference Shocks and Counterfactual Long-Run Risk in the Albuquerque et al., Valuation Risk Model

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  • Samuel Kruger

Abstract

Does valuation risk induced by stochastic time preferences explain the equity premium puzzle as proposed by Albuquerque et al. (2016)? This explanation of the equity premium has several challenges. First, the valuation risk model implies extreme preference for early resolution of uncertainty and extreme aversion to valuation risk (which becomes infinite as elasticity of intertemporal substitution approaches 1). Second, the model has a significant long-run risk component that counterfactually implies that consumption and dividend growth are highly persistent and predictable. Finally, I find no evidence that equity prices predict future risk-free rates as predicted by the baseline valuation risk model.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Kruger, 2021. "High Aversion to Stochastic Time Preference Shocks and Counterfactual Long-Run Risk in the Albuquerque et al., Valuation Risk Model," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 10(3), pages 383-408, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:now:jnlcfr:104.00000093
    DOI: 10.1561/104.00000093
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Valuation risk; Equity premium; Stochastic time preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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