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Previsões de razões ótimas de hedge para a manga exportada brasileira [Forecasting of optimal hedge ratios for the Brazilian exported mango]

Author

Listed:
  • Abdinardo Moreira Barreto de Oliveira

    (UTFPR)

  • Joséte Florencio dos Santos

    (UFPE)

Abstract

This study forecast the effective’s optimal hedge ratios in diminishing the risk price of Brazilian mango exported, by futures markets. It was collected 300 monthly average mango prices US$ FOB/kg, between 1989 and 2013, from the site AliceWeb2. It was used the ARIMA models to forecast the futures prices. It was built 48 scenarios for each hedging approach used in this study: Minimum Variance, Mean-Variance and BEKK-GARCH. The futures contracts with maturities of 05 and 09 months had the best hedge effectiveness averages (35% and 36%), with optimal hedge ratios of 86.5% and 75.1%, in short positions. In practical matters, the BEKK-GARCH dynamic model had satisfactory hedge results only in large periods, showing its sensibility towards the size, and the prevalence of statics hedge approach in small periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdinardo Moreira Barreto de Oliveira & Joséte Florencio dos Santos, 2017. "Previsões de razões ótimas de hedge para a manga exportada brasileira [Forecasting of optimal hedge ratios for the Brazilian exported mango]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 27(3), pages 671-703, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:27:y:2017:i:3:p:671-703
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price risk; mango exported; ARIMA model; Hedging approaches; futures markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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