Arbeitsmarktreformen und „Beschäftigungswunder“ in Deutschland

Shortly after the labour market reforms of 2002 to 2005, German labour market trends reversed. This temporal coincidence suggests that it may be reasonable to assume a causal link between the reforms and the trend reversal and to refute criticism of the reforms’ negative incidental consequences by referring to their alleged effects on employment. Actually, however, evidence for the efficacy of the reforms is rather weak. Falling unemployment despite only moderate economic growth must be attributed to the shrinking of the labour force, retarded productivity growth and the volume of work being shared among more individuals. Negative developments attributed to the reforms have, for the larger part, occurred previously. However, the intimidation of workers by the reforms and the discourses associated with their implementation, in conjunction with deteriorating job entry positions with regard to wages and employment status, are exerting a paradoxical effect on the labour market as a whole: Flexibilisation, in the sense of one-sidedly increasing employers’ discretion while reducing workers’ opportunities, leads to a reduction of the allocative capacity of the labour market.