Agricultural Policy Impact On Major Farm Products Prices Development In Bulgaria Up To 2020

The paper analyses the impact of agricultural policy on farm prices developments for the major agricultural products. The importance of prices for agricultural development and farmer‘s income in short and long term as well as for formulation of agricultural policy for the next planning period determines the necessity of the farm prices development analysis. The main objective of the study is to identify the potential price development for the major farm products under different policy scenarios up to 2020. The study is based on the model developed under AGMEMOD2020 VI FP project as some amendments in Bulgarian country model are done. The latter is considered as integral part of EU combined model and prices are determined on the basis of EU and Bulgarian markets clearance. The used model is partial equilibrium, dynamic, multy-products model, as parameters of the Bulgarian model are estimated by calibration and in-sample verification of the model is done. The products analysed in the study are: soft wheat, barley, maize, sunflower, tobacco, potato, tomato, milk, beef and veal, sheep meat, poultry, pork and eggs, i.e. 60-65% of crop production and above 90% of livestock production in the country as well as some processed products. The analysis of price development in Bulgaria is carried out as integral part of price development on EU markets and 3 scenarios for agricultural policy development. The study shows that the expectations for price developments for all analysed products are favourable for farmers. Considered policy scenarios have strong impact on prices of wheat, maize, sunflower, milk and beef and veal and practically do not have impact on all other analysed products.