Strategic planning in conditions of uncertainty: Adaptivity for sustainability

When designing both governmental and business strategic plans nowadays, an overwhelming uncertainty about the future state of natural and social environment needs to be considered. Businesses are gradually shaping approaches to solve this problem and revising the known ideas of risk management. At the government level, however, the same problem, which becomes even more challenging, urgent and demanding, is still being solved less successfully. Any attempts to find the solution, mostly drawing on the Soviet planning experience, and generally based on the planning of both detailed and aggregate output indicators for specific products are futile. Approaches targeting outcomes are more adequate, provided that priority is given to the sustainability of the plans rather than to the number of quantitatively defined targets. It is expedient, on the one hand, to avoid including in the strategic plans a higher level of what may require adjustments for the sake of responding to new challenges and opportunities. On the other hand, it is advisable to introduce response strategies in these plans, including conditions and rules for the adjustment of plans at the other levels. This paper proposes one of the instruments for risk management in conditions of uncertainty called "a ladder of sustainability".