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The Russian manufacturing passing the COVID-19 crisis: Macro-level view

Author

Listed:
  • Salnikov, V.

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS, NRU HSE, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The paper provides an express analysis of factors, general results and sectoral features of the COVID-crisis in the Russian industry. Six sectoral clusters are identified by the criteria of similarity of dynamics in production volumes, profits and investment activity. The most important sectoral factors that impacted the trends in the indicators are identified. It is shown that the obvious success observed in the first half of 2021 (namely the general growth in output and profits) is the effect of the deferred demand and the forced switch of demand from services to goods (meanwhile growth in food production, chemistry and wood and paper production continued to be based on net export growth). The factors that emerged by mid-2021 and negatively affected the development of manufacturing in the short term are indicated: the first is the exhausting deferred demand and, the second is the intensifying cost inflation. Meantime there is one supporting growth factor which is oil export recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Salnikov, V., 2021. "The Russian manufacturing passing the COVID-19 crisis: Macro-level view," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 246-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2021:i:52:p:246-252
    DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2021-52-4-13
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    manufacturing production; crisis; COVID-19; industrial structure; factors of industrial development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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