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Sudden Turn

Author

Listed:
  • Mirkin, Ya.

    (Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The article reveals the main constraints to the economic development and growth in Russia, stemming from the current economic model, the nature of the financial system, and the existing global risks and conflicts. The basic scenarios according to which the macroeconomic situation in Russia will develop are given. The probability of possible scenarios is estimated, taking into account the standards of social behaviour and the traditional cultural values. We discuss in detail the strategy of "sudden turn", based on a pragmatic liberalism, the principles of developmental economics and the experiences of countries that have achieved the economic miracle after World War II. Moreover, the article discloses the components of macroeconomic policy that might lead Russia to the path of outrunning economic growth and "catching up" modernization. In particular, it shows the key elements of monetary, interest rate, exchange rate, fiscal, tax, investment, price, and capital account policies, as well as policies in the fields of ownership and anti-monopoly regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirkin, Ya., 2015. "Sudden Turn," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 196-201.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2015:i:26:p:196-201
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic reality; scenario; catching up modernization; economic miracle; developmental state; pragmatic liberalism; developmental finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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