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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Author

Listed:
  • Heidi Kreibich

    (Section Hydrology)

  • Anne F. Loon

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Kai Schröter

    (Section Hydrology
    Technische Universität Braunschweig)

  • Philip J. Ward

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Maurizio Mazzoleni

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Nivedita Sairam

    (Section Hydrology)

  • Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu

    (University of Houston)

  • Svetlana Agafonova

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Amir AghaKouchak

    (University of California)

  • Hafzullah Aksoy

    (Istanbul Technical University)

  • Camila Alvarez-Garreton

    (Center for Climate and Resilience Research
    Universidad de La Frontera)

  • Blanca Aznar

    (Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A)

  • Laila Balkhi

    (University of Saskatchewan)

  • Marlies H. Barendrecht

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Sylvain Biancamaria

    (Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS)

  • Liduin Bos-Burgering

    (Deltares)

  • Chris Bradley

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Yus Budiyono

    (Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology)

  • Wouter Buytaert

    (Imperial College London)

  • Lucinda Capewell

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Hayley Carlson

    (University of Saskatchewan)

  • Yonca Cavus

    (Beykent University
    Istanbul Technical University
    University of Freiburg)

  • Anaïs Couasnon

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Gemma Coxon

    (University of Bristol
    University of Bristol)

  • Ioannis Daliakopoulos

    (Hellenic Mediterranean University)

  • Marleen C. Ruiter

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Claire Delus

    (Université de Lorraine, LOTERR)

  • Mathilde Erfurt

    (University of Freiburg)

  • Giuseppe Esposito

    (Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection)

  • Didier François

    (Université de Lorraine, LOTERR)

  • Frédéric Frappart

    (Bordeaux Sciences Agro, UMR ISPA)

  • Jim Freer

    (University of Bristol
    University of Bristol
    University of Saskatchewan, Centre for Hydrology)

  • Natalia Frolova

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Animesh K. Gain

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Ca’ Foscari University of Venice)

  • Manolis Grillakis

    (Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas)

  • Jordi Oriol Grima

    (Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A)

  • Diego A. Guzmán

    (Pontificia Bolivariana University, Faculty of Civil Engineering)

  • Laurie S. Huning

    (University of California
    California State University)

  • Monica Ionita

    (Palaeoclimate Dynamics Group
    Romanian Academy
    Ștefan cel Mare University)

  • Maxim Kharlamov

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University
    Water Problem Institute Russian Academy of Science)

  • Dao Nguyen Khoi

    (University of Science)

  • Natalie Kieboom

    (Environment Agency)

  • Maria Kireeva

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Aristeidis Koutroulis

    (Technical University of Crete)

  • Waldo Lavado-Casimiro

    (Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú)

  • Hong-Yi Li

    (University of Houston)

  • María Carmen LLasat

    (University of Barcelona
    University of Barcelona)

  • David Macdonald

    (British Geological Survey)

  • Johanna Mård

    (Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science
    Uppsala University)

  • Hannah Mathew-Richards

    (Environment Agency)

  • Andrew McKenzie

    (British Geological Survey)

  • Alfonso Mejia

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

  • Eduardo Mario Mendiondo

    (University of São Paulo)

  • Marjolein Mens

    (Deltares)

  • Shifteh Mobini

    (Trelleborg municipality
    Lund University)

  • Guilherme Samprogna Mohor

    (University of Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography)

  • Viorica Nagavciuc

    (Palaeoclimate Dynamics Group
    Ștefan cel Mare University)

  • Thanh Ngo-Duc

    (University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology)

  • Thi Nguyen Huynh

    (Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City)

  • Pham Thi Thao Nhi

    (University of Science)

  • Olga Petrucci

    (Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection)

  • Hong Quan Nguyen

    (Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City
    Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City)

  • Pere Quintana-Seguí

    (Ramon Llull University – CSIC)

  • Saman Razavi

    (University of Saskatchewan
    University of Saskatchewan
    University of Saskatchewan)

  • Elena Ridolfi

    (Sapienza Università di Roma)

  • Jannik Riegel

    (University of Applied Sciences)

  • Md Shibly Sadik

    (Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services)

  • Elisa Savelli

    (Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science
    Uppsala University)

  • Alexey Sazonov

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University
    Water Problem Institute Russian Academy of Science)

  • Sanjib Sharma

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

  • Johanna Sörensen

    (Lund University)

  • Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza

    (University of São Paulo)

  • Kerstin Stahl

    (University of Freiburg)

  • Max Steinhausen

    (Section Hydrology)

  • Michael Stoelzle

    (University of Freiburg)

  • Wiwiana Szalińska

    (Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute)

  • Qiuhong Tang

    (Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Fuqiang Tian

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Tamara Tokarczyk

    (Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute)

  • Carolina Tovar

    (Royal Botanical Gardens Kew)

  • Thi Van Thu Tran

    (Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City)

  • Marjolein H. J. Huijgevoort

    (KWR Water Research Institute)

  • Michelle T. H. Vliet

    (Utrecht University)

  • Sergiy Vorogushyn

    (Section Hydrology)

  • Thorsten Wagener

    (University of Bristol
    University of Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography
    University of Bristol)

  • Yueling Wang

    (Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Doris E. Wendt

    (University of Bristol)

  • Elliot Wickham

    (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)

  • Long Yang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini

    (Center for Climate and Resilience Research
    Universidad de La Frontera)

  • Günter Blöschl

    (Technische Universität Wien)

  • Giuliano Baldassarre

    (Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science
    Uppsala University
    IHE Delft)

Abstract

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3.

Suggested Citation

  • Heidi Kreibich & Anne F. Loon & Kai Schröter & Philip J. Ward & Maurizio Mazzoleni & Nivedita Sairam & Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu & Svetlana Agafonova & Amir AghaKouchak & Hafzullah Aksoy & Camila Alvarez-, 2022. "The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management," Nature, Nature, vol. 608(7921), pages 80-86, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:608:y:2022:i:7921:d:10.1038_s41586-022-04917-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sindisiwe Nyide & Mulala Danny Simatele & Stefan Grab & Richard Kwame Adom, 2023. "Assessment of the Dynamics towards Effective and Efficient Post-Flood Disaster Adaptive Capacity and Resilience in South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-25, August.
    2. Nimra Iqbal & Marvin Ravan & Ali Jamshed & Joern Birkmann & Giorgos Somarakis & Zina Mitraka & Nektarios Chrysoulakis, 2022. "Linkages between Typologies of Existing Urban Development Patterns and Human Vulnerability to Heat Stress in Lahore," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-26, August.
    3. Yanxi Zhao & Dengpan Xiao & Huizi Bai & Jianzhao Tang & De Li Liu & Yongqing Qi & Yanjun Shen, 2022. "The Prediction of Wheat Yield in the North China Plain by Coupling Crop Model with Machine Learning Algorithms," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Othman, Abdullah & El-Saoud, Waleed A. & Habeebullah, Turki & Shaaban, Fathy & Abotalib, Abotalib Z., 2023. "Risk assessment of flash flood and soil erosion impacts on electrical infrastructures in overcrowded mountainous urban areas under climate change," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

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