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Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat

Author

Listed:
  • Jasmine R. Lee

    (Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland
    CSIRO)

  • Ben Raymond

    (Australian Antarctic Division, Department of the Environment and Energy
    Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania
    Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania)

  • Thomas J. Bracegirdle

    (British Antarctic Survey)

  • Iadine Chadès

    (CSIRO
    ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, The University of Queensland)

  • Richard A. Fuller

    (Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland)

  • Justine D. Shaw

    (Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland
    ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, The University of Queensland)

  • Aleks Terauds

    (Australian Antarctic Division, Department of the Environment and Energy)

Abstract

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

Suggested Citation

  • Jasmine R. Lee & Ben Raymond & Thomas J. Bracegirdle & Iadine Chadès & Richard A. Fuller & Justine D. Shaw & Aleks Terauds, 2017. "Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat," Nature, Nature, vol. 547(7661), pages 49-54, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:547:y:2017:i:7661:d:10.1038_nature22996
    DOI: 10.1038/nature22996
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    Cited by:

    1. Pertierra, L.R. & Santos-Martin, F. & Hughes, K.A. & Avila, C. & Caceres, J.O. & De Filippo, D. & Gonzalez, S. & Grant, S.M. & Lynch, H. & Marina-Montes, C. & Quesada, A. & Tejedo, P. & Tin, T. & Bena, 2021. "Ecosystem services in Antarctica: Global assessment of the current state, future challenges and managing opportunities," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

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