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Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

Author

Listed:
  • Steven C. Amstrup

    (US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center
    Present address: Polar Bears International, 810 N. Wallace, Suite E, P. O. Box 3008, Bozeman, Montana 59772, USA.)

  • Eric T. DeWeaver

    (National Science Foundation)

  • David C. Douglas

    (US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center)

  • Bruce G. Marcot

    (USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station)

  • George M. Durner

    (US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center)

  • Cecilia M. Bitz

    (Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington)

  • David A. Bailey

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Dr)

Abstract

Cutting greenhouse emissions could still save the polar bear Polar bears live only in marine regions of the Northern Hemisphere where sea-ice cover persists for long enough to allow them sufficient opportunity to access their marine mammal prey. Recent declines in summer Arctic sea ice have coincided with declines in some polar bear populations, and a US Geological Survey report in 2007 projected that with 'business as usual' emissions, polar bears could be extinct throughout their range by the end of the century. Some observers have suggested that summer Arctic sea ice might already have crossed a tipping point from beyond which habitats might not recover. But a new analysis suggests that it is not too late to save the polar bear. The rapid summer ice losses seen of late may represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than a tipping point. Greenhouse-gas mitigation could yet halt sea-ice loss and preserve the Arctic ecosystem.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven C. Amstrup & Eric T. DeWeaver & David C. Douglas & Bruce G. Marcot & George M. Durner & Cecilia M. Bitz & David A. Bailey, 2010. "Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence," Nature, Nature, vol. 468(7326), pages 955-958, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:468:y:2010:i:7326:d:10.1038_nature09653
    DOI: 10.1038/nature09653
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcot, Bruce G., 2012. "Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 50-62.
    2. Anders Levermann & Jonathan Bamber & Sybren Drijfhout & Andrey Ganopolski & Winfried Haeberli & Neil Harris & Matthias Huss & Kirstin Krüger & Timothy Lenton & Ronald Lindsay & Dirk Notz & Peter Wadha, 2012. "Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 845-878, February.
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2020. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Papers 2005.02535, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    4. Weiming Ma & Hailong Wang & Gang Chen & L. Ruby Leung & Jian Lu & Philip J. Rasch & Qiang Fu & Ben Kravitz & Yufei Zou & John J. Cassano & Wieslaw Maslowski, 2024. "The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Working Papers 21-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.

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