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Seasonal dynamics of recurrent epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Lewi Stone

    (Biomathematics Unit, Faculty of Life Science
    The Porter School of Environmental Studies, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69978, Israel)

  • Ronen Olinky

    (Biomathematics Unit, Faculty of Life Science)

  • Amit Huppert

    (Biomathematics Unit, Faculty of Life Science
    The Porter School of Environmental Studies, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv 69978, Israel)

Abstract

The season to be ill A new epidemiological model should help those trying to predict seasonal infections, such as influenza, measles, pertussis and chickenpox, and has implications for the design of vaccination campaigns. The model focuses on what happens after an outbreak, and the key finding is that there is an epidemic threshold determined by a population's susceptibility after the last outbreak and the rate at which susceptible individuals join the population. If the number of unexposed nonimmune individuals is high, an epidemic is likely. If the number of 'susceptibles' is below threshold, the disease may 'skip' a year.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewi Stone & Ronen Olinky & Amit Huppert, 2007. "Seasonal dynamics of recurrent epidemics," Nature, Nature, vol. 446(7135), pages 533-536, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:446:y:2007:i:7135:d:10.1038_nature05638
    DOI: 10.1038/nature05638
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Zengyun & Teng, Zhidong & Zhang, Tailei & Zhou, Qiming & Chen, Xi, 2017. "Globally asymptotically stable analysis in a discrete time eco-epidemiological system," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 20-31.
    2. Steve E Bellan & Juliet R C Pulliam & James C Scott & Jonathan Dushoff & the MMED Organizing Committee, 2012. "How to Make Epidemiological Training Infectious," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-8, April.
    3. Tao Chen & Tianmu Chen & Ruchun Liu & Cuiling Xu & Dayan Wang & Faming Chen & Wenfei Zhu & Xixing Zhang & Jing Yang & Lijie Wang & Zhi Xie & Yongkun Chen & Tian Bai & Yelan Li & Zhiyu Wang & Min Zhang, 2016. "Transmissibility of the Influenza Virus during Influenza Outbreaks and Related Asymptomatic Infection in Mainland China, 2005-2013," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-14, November.
    4. José M Ponciano & Marcos A Capistrán, 2011. "First Principles Modeling of Nonlinear Incidence Rates in Seasonal Epidemics," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-14, February.
    5. Christensen, Claire & Albert, István & Grenfell, Bryan & Albert, Réka, 2010. "Disease dynamics in a dynamic social network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(13), pages 2663-2674.
    6. Ross Sparks & Tim Keighley & David Muscatello, 2010. "Early warning CUSUM plans for surveillance of negative binomial daily disease counts," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1911-1929.
    7. Sahoo, Banshidhar, 2015. "Role of additional food in eco-epidemiological system with disease in the prey," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 259(C), pages 61-79.
    8. Julia B Wenger & Elena N Naumova, 2010. "Seasonal Synchronization of Influenza in the United States Older Adult Population," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, April.
    9. Joseph Pateras & Ashwin Vaidya & Preetam Ghosh, 2022. "Network Thermodynamics-Based Scalable Compartmental Model for Multi-Strain Epidemics," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Timothy R. Julian & Robert A. Canales & James O. Leckie & Alexandria B. Boehm, 2009. "A Model of Exposure to Rotavirus from Nondietary Ingestion Iterated by Simulated Intermittent Contacts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(5), pages 617-632, May.
    11. Sahoo, Banshidhar & Poria, Swarup, 2015. "Effects of allochthonous inputs in the control of infectious disease of prey," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-19.
    12. Michelangelo Bin & Peter Y K Cheung & Emanuele Crisostomi & Pietro Ferraro & Hugo Lhachemi & Roderick Murray-Smith & Connor Myant & Thomas Parisini & Robert Shorten & Sebastian Stein & Lewi Stone, 2021. "Post-lockdown abatement of COVID-19 by fast periodic switching," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-34, January.
    13. Steindorf, Vanessa & Srivastav, Akhil Kumar & Stollenwerk, Nico & Kooi, Bob W. & Aguiar, Maíra, 2022. "Modeling secondary infections with temporary immunity and disease enhancement factor: Mechanisms for complex dynamics in simple epidemiological models," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    14. Pedro, S.A. & Rwezaura, H. & Mandipezar, A. & Tchuenche, J.M., 2021. "Qualitative Analysis of an influenza model with biomedical interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    15. Baba, Isa Abdullahi & Hincal, Evren, 2018. "A model for influenza with vaccination and awareness," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 49-55.

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