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Great Himalayan earthquakes and the Tibetan plateau

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  • Nicole Feldl

    (University of Colorado)

  • Roger Bilham

    (University of Colorado)

Abstract

It has been assumed that Himalayan earthquakes are driven by the release of compressional strain accumulating close to the Greater Himalaya. However, elastic models of the Indo–Asian collision using recently imaged subsurface interface geometries suggest that a substantial fraction of the southernmost 500 kilometres of the Tibetan plateau participates in driving great ruptures. We show here that this Tibetan reservoir of elastic strain energy is drained in proportion to Himalayan rupture length, and that the consequent growth of slip and magnitude with rupture area, when compared to data from recent earthquakes, can be used to infer a ∼500-year renewal time for these events. The elastic models also illuminate two puzzling features of plate boundary seismicity: how great earthquakes can re-rupture regions that have already ruptured in recent smaller earthquakes and how mega-earthquakes with greater than 20 metres slip may occur at millennia-long intervals, driven by residual strain following many centuries of smaller earthquakes.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole Feldl & Roger Bilham, 2006. "Great Himalayan earthquakes and the Tibetan plateau," Nature, Nature, vol. 444(7116), pages 165-170, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:444:y:2006:i:7116:d:10.1038_nature05199
    DOI: 10.1038/nature05199
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    Cited by:

    1. Basab Mukhopadhyay & Anshuman Acharyya & Sujit Dasgupta, 2011. "Potential source zones for Himalayan earthquakes: constraints from spatial–temporal clusters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 57(2), pages 369-383, May.
    2. A. Vanuvamalai & K. P. Jaya & V. Balachandran, 2018. "Seismic performance of tunnel structures: a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 453-468, August.
    3. Tom R. Robinson, 2020. "Scenario ensemble modelling of possible future earthquake impacts in Bhutan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3457-3478, September.
    4. A. Mahajan & V. Thakur & Mukat Sharma & Mukesh Chauhan, 2010. "Probabilistic seismic hazard map of NW Himalaya and its adjoining area, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 53(3), pages 443-457, June.

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