IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/nature/v433y2005i7024d10.1038_nature03301.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

Author

Listed:
  • D. A. Stainforth

    (University of Oxford)

  • T. Aina

    (University of Oxford)

  • C. Christensen

    (University of Oxford)

  • M. Collins

    (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office)

  • N. Faull

    (University of Oxford)

  • D. J. Frame

    (University of Oxford)

  • J. A. Kettleborough

    (Rutherford Appleton Laboratory)

  • S. Knight

    (University of Oxford)

  • A. Martin

    (University of Oxford)

  • J. M. Murphy

    (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office)

  • C. Piani

    (University of Oxford)

  • D. Sexton

    (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office)

  • L. A. Smith

    (London School of Economics)

  • R. A. Spicer

    (The Open University)

  • A. J. Thorpe

    (University of Reading)

  • M. R. Allen

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Climate models: net gains In the climateprediction.net project, thousands of individuals have volunteered spare computing capacity on their PCs to help quantify uncertainty in the way our climate responds to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. By running a state-of-the-art climate model thousands of times, it is possible to find out how the model responds to slight changes in the approximations of physical processes that cannot be calculated explicitly. The first batch of results has now been analysed, and surface temperature changes in simulations that capture the climate realistically are ranging from below 2 °C to more than 11 °C. These represent the possible long-term change, averaged over the whole planet, as a result of doubling the levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the model. This is the first time that complex models have been found with such a wide range of responses. Their existence will help in quantifying the risks associated with climate change on a regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • D. A. Stainforth & T. Aina & C. Christensen & M. Collins & N. Faull & D. J. Frame & J. A. Kettleborough & S. Knight & A. Martin & J. M. Murphy & C. Piani & D. Sexton & L. A. Smith & R. A. Spicer & A. , 2005. "Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7024), pages 403-406, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:433:y:2005:i:7024:d:10.1038_nature03301
    DOI: 10.1038/nature03301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature03301
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/nature03301?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:433:y:2005:i:7024:d:10.1038_nature03301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.