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Global forecasts of shipping traffic and biological invasions to 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony Sardain

    (McGill University)

  • Erik Sardain

    (BHP Marketing Asia Pte Ltd)

  • Brian Leung

    (McGill University
    McGill University)

Abstract

Socioeconomic factors, including population growth, global trade and the worldwide transport of materials, interact with environmental drivers to determine the sustainability of natural systems. We focus on the global shipping network, which is central to invasive species spread worldwide. We explain 90% of the variation in global shipping traffic and a twofold increase in shipping using basic socioeconomic indicators and a temporal validation set. Combining our model with global economic development scenarios, we project global maritime traffic to increase by 240–1,209% by 2050. Integrating our predictions with global climate change projections and shipping-mediated invasion models, we forecast invasion risk to surge in middle-income countries, particularly in Northeast Asia. Shipping growth will have a far greater effect on marine invasions than climate-driven environmental changes: while climate change might actually decrease the average probability of invasion, the emerging global shipping network could yield a 3- to 20-fold increase in global invasion risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Sardain & Erik Sardain & Brian Leung, 2019. "Global forecasts of shipping traffic and biological invasions to 2050," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 274-282, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:2:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1038_s41893-019-0245-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0245-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Occhipinti-Ambrogi, 2021. "Biopollution by Invasive Marine Non-Indigenous Species: A Review of Potential Adverse Ecological Effects in a Changing Climate," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Zhaojun Wang & Amanda M. Countryman & James J. Corbett & Mandana Saebi, 2021. "Economic and environmental impacts of ballast water management on Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries," Papers 2108.13315, arXiv.org.
    3. Leonardo M. Millefiori & Paolo Braca & Dimitris Zissis & Giannis Spiliopoulos & Stefano Marano & Peter K. Willett & Sandro Carniel, 2020. "COVID-19 Impact on Global Maritime Mobility," Papers 2009.06960, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.

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