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Beneficial effects of climate warming on boreal tree growth may be transitory

Author

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  • Loïc D’Orangeville

    (Université du Québec à Montréal
    University of New Brunswick, 28 Dineen Drive)

  • Daniel Houle

    (Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec
    Ouranos, 550 Rue Sherbrooke O)

  • Louis Duchesne

    (Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec)

  • Richard P. Phillips

    (Indiana University)

  • Yves Bergeron

    (Université du Québec à Montréal
    Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue)

  • Daniel Kneeshaw

    (Université du Québec à Montréal)

Abstract

Predicted increases in temperature and aridity across the boreal forest region have the potential to alter timber supply and carbon sequestration. Given the widely-observed variation in species sensitivity to climate, there is an urgent need to develop species-specific predictive models that can account for local conditions. Here, we matched the growth of 270,000 trees across a 761,100 km2 region with detailed site-level data to quantify the growth responses of the seven most common boreal tree species in Eastern Canada to changes in climate. Accounting for spatially-explicit species-specific responses, we find that while 2 °C of warming may increase overall forest productivity by 13 ± 3% (mean ± SE) in the absence of disturbance, additional warming could reverse this trend and lead to substantial declines exacerbated by reductions in water availability. Our results confirm the transitory nature of warming-induced growth benefits in the boreal forest and highlight the vulnerability of the ecosystem to excess warming and drying.

Suggested Citation

  • Loïc D’Orangeville & Daniel Houle & Louis Duchesne & Richard P. Phillips & Yves Bergeron & Daniel Kneeshaw, 2018. "Beneficial effects of climate warming on boreal tree growth may be transitory," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-05705-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05705-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Vergarechea, M. & Astrup, R. & Fischer, C. & Øistad, K. & Blattert, C. & Hartikainen, M. & Eyvindson, K. & Di Fulvio, F. & Forsell, N. & Burgas, D. & Toraño-Caicoya, A. & Mönkkönen, M. & Antón-Fernánd, 2023. "Future wood demands and ecosystem services trade-offs: A policy analysis in Norway," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Ménard, Isabelle & Thiffault, Evelyne & Boulanger, Yan & Boucher, Jean-François, 2022. "Multi-model approach to integrate climate change impact on carbon sequestration potential of afforestation scenarios in Quebec, Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    3. Lotte Visser & Ric Hoefnagels & Martin Junginger, 2020. "The Potential Contribution of Imported Biomass to Renewable Energy Targets in the EU–the Trade-off between Ambitious Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets and Cost Thresholds," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-30, April.
    4. Debaly, Zinsou Max & Marchand, Philippe & Girona, Miguel Montoro, 2022. "Autoregressive models for time series of random sums of positive variables: Application to tree growth as a function of climate and insect outbreak," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 471(C).

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