IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-45110-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Ward

    (UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & Surveillance)

  • Christopher E. Overton

    (UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & Surveillance
    Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool)

  • Robert S. Paton

    (UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & Surveillance)

  • Rachel Christie

    (UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & Surveillance)

  • Fergus Cumming

    (UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & Surveillance)

  • Martyn Fyles

    (UK Health Security Agency, Data Analytics & Surveillance)

Abstract

In May 2022, individuals infected with the monkeypox virus were detected in the UK without clear travel links to endemic areas. Understanding the clinical characteristics and infection severity of mpox is necessary for effective public health policy. The study period of this paper, from the 1st June 2022 to 30th September 2022, included 3,375 individuals that tested positive for the monkeypox virus. The posterior mean times from infection to hospital admission and length of hospital stay were 14.89 days (95% Credible Intervals (CrI): 13.60, 16.32) and 7.07 days (95% CrI: 6.07, 8.23), respectively. We estimated the modelled Infection Hospitalisation Risk to be 4.13% (95% CrI: 3.04, 5.02), compared to the overall sample Case Hospitalisation Risk (CHR) of 5.10% (95% CrI: 4.38, 5.86). The overall sample CHR was estimated to be 17.86% (95% CrI: 6.06, 33.11) for females and 4.99% (95% CrI: 4.27, 5.75) for males. A notable difference was observed between the CHRs that were estimated for each sex, which may be indicative of increased infection severity in females or a considerably lower infection ascertainment rate. It was estimated that 74.65% (95% CrI: 55.78, 86.85) of infections with the monkeypox virus in the UK were captured over the outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Ward & Christopher E. Overton & Robert S. Paton & Rachel Christie & Fergus Cumming & Martyn Fyles, 2024. "Understanding the infection severity and epidemiological characteristics of mpox in the UK," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45110-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45110-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-45110-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-45110-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tim K. Tsang & Can Wang & Bingyi Yang & Simon Cauchemez & Benjamin J. Cowling, 2021. "Using secondary cases to characterize the severity of an emerging or re-emerging infection," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.

      More about this item

      Statistics

      Access and download statistics

      Corrections

      All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45110-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

      If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

      If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

      If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

      For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

      Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

      IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.