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Predicting vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 over time and against variants: a meta-analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Deborah Cromer

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Megan Steain

    (The University of Sydney
    The University of Sydney)

  • Arnold Reynaldi

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Timothy E. Schlub

    (University of New South Wales
    University of Sydney)

  • Shanchita R. Khan

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Sarah C. Sasson

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Stephen J. Kent

    (University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity
    Monash University)

  • David S. Khoury

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Miles P. Davenport

    (University of New South Wales)

Abstract

Vaccine protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to be strongly correlated with neutralising antibody titres; however, this has not yet been demonstrated for severe COVID-19. To explore whether this relationship also holds for severe COVID-19, we performed a systematic search for studies reporting on protection against different SARS-CoV-2 clinical endpoints and extracted data from 15 studies. Since matched neutralising antibody titres were not available, we used the vaccine regimen, time since vaccination and variant of concern to predict corresponding neutralising antibody titres. We then compared the observed vaccine effectiveness reported in these studies to the protection predicted by a previously published model of the relationship between neutralising antibody titre and vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19. We find that predicted neutralising antibody titres are strongly correlated with observed vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic (Spearman $$\rho$$ ρ = 0.95, p

Suggested Citation

  • Deborah Cromer & Megan Steain & Arnold Reynaldi & Timothy E. Schlub & Shanchita R. Khan & Sarah C. Sasson & Stephen J. Kent & David S. Khoury & Miles P. Davenport, 2023. "Predicting vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 over time and against variants: a meta-analysis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37176-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37176-7
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    1. Sandile Cele & Laurelle Jackson & David S. Khoury & Khadija Khan & Thandeka Moyo-Gwete & Houriiyah Tegally & James Emmanuel San & Deborah Cromer & Cathrine Scheepers & Daniel G. Amoako & Farina Karim , 2022. "Omicron extensively but incompletely escapes Pfizer BNT162b2 neutralization," Nature, Nature, vol. 602(7898), pages 654-656, February.
    2. Adam K. Wheatley & Jennifer A. Juno & Jing J. Wang & Kevin J. Selva & Arnold Reynaldi & Hyon-Xhi Tan & Wen Shi Lee & Kathleen M. Wragg & Hannah G. Kelly & Robyn Esterbauer & Samantha K. Davis & Helen , 2021. "Evolution of immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 in mild-moderate COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Otavio T. Ranzani & Matt D. T. Hitchings & Rosana Leite Melo & Giovanny V. A. França & Cássia de Fátima R. Fernandes & Margaret L. Lind & Mario Sergio Scaramuzzini Torres & Daniel Henrique Tsuha & Let, 2022. "Effectiveness of an inactivated Covid-19 vaccine with homologous and heterologous boosters against Omicron in Brazil," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Craig A. Magaret & Li Li & Allan C. deCamp & Morgane Rolland & Michal Juraska & Brian D. Williamson & James Ludwig & Cindy Molitor & David Benkeser & Alex Luedtke & Brian Simpkins & Fei Heng & Yanqing, 2024. "Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Khadija Khan & Gila Lustig & Cornelius Römer & Kajal Reedoy & Zesuliwe Jule & Farina Karim & Yashica Ganga & Mallory Bernstein & Zainab Baig & Laurelle Jackson & Boitshoko Mahlangu & Anele Mnguni & Ay, 2023. "Evolution and neutralization escape of the SARS-CoV-2 BA.2.86 subvariant," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Eva Stadler & Martin T. Burgess & Timothy E. Schlub & Shanchita R. Khan & Khai Li Chai & Zoe K. McQuilten & Erica M. Wood & Mark N. Polizzotto & Stephen J. Kent & Deborah Cromer & Miles P. Davenport &, 2023. "Monoclonal antibody levels and protection from COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Junqing Xie & Beatriz Mothe & Marta Alcalde Herraiz & Chunxiao Li & Yu Xu & Annika M. Jödicke & Yaqing Gao & Yunhe Wang & Shuo Feng & Jia Wei & Zhuoyao Chen & Shenda Hong & Yeda Wu & Binbin Su & Xiaoy, 2024. "Relationship between HLA genetic variations, COVID-19 vaccine antibody response, and risk of breakthrough outcomes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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