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Global diversity dynamics in the fossil record are regionally heterogeneous

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  • Joseph T. Flannery-Sutherland

    (University of Bristol)

  • Daniele Silvestro

    (University of Fribourg
    University of Gothenburg
    Global Gothenburg Biodiversity Centre)

  • Michael J. Benton

    (University of Bristol)

Abstract

Global diversity patterns in the fossil record comprise a mosaic of regional trends, underpinned by spatially non-random drivers and distorted by variation in sampling intensity through time and across space. Sampling-corrected diversity estimates from spatially-standardised fossil datasets retain their regional biogeographic nuances and avoid these biases, yet diversity-through-time arises from the interplay of origination and extinction, the processes that shape macroevolutionary history. Here we present a subsampling algorithm to eliminate spatial sampling bias, coupled with advanced probabilistic methods for estimating origination and extinction rates and a Bayesian method for estimating sampling-corrected diversity. We then re-examine the Late Permian to Early Jurassic marine fossil record, an interval spanning several global biotic upheavals that shaped the origins of the modern marine biosphere. We find that origination and extinction rates are regionally heterogenous even during events that manifested globally, highlighting the need for spatially explicit views of macroevolutionary processes through geological time.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph T. Flannery-Sutherland & Daniele Silvestro & Michael J. Benton, 2022. "Global diversity dynamics in the fossil record are regionally heterogeneous," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-30507-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30507-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roger A. Close & Roger B.J. Benson & Paul Upchurch & Richard J. Butler, 2017. "Controlling for the species-area effect supports constrained long-term Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate diversification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-11, August.
    2. Philip D. Mannion & Roger B. J. Benson & Matthew T. Carrano & Jonathan P. Tennant & Jack Judd & Richard J. Butler, 2015. "Climate constrains the evolutionary history and biodiversity of crocodylians," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Alexander M. Dunhill & Bjarte Hannisdal & Michael J. Benton, 2014. "Disentangling rock record bias and common-cause from redundancy in the British fossil record," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Alyson M. Thibodeau & Kathleen Ritterbush & Joyce A. Yager & A. Joshua West & Yadira Ibarra & David J. Bottjer & William M. Berelson & Bridget A. Bergquist & Frank A. Corsetti, 2016. "Mercury anomalies and the timing of biotic recovery following the end-Triassic mass extinction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8, September.
    5. Fabien L. Condamine & Guillaume Guinot & Michael J. Benton & Philip J. Currie, 2021. "Dinosaur biodiversity declined well before the asteroid impact, influenced by ecological and environmental pressures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Corentin Jouault & André Nel & Vincent Perrichot & Frédéric Legendre & Fabien L. Condamine, 2022. "Multiple drivers and lineage-specific insect extinctions during the Permo–Triassic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Zhen Guo & Joseph T. Flannery-Sutherland & Michael J. Benton & Zhong-Qiang Chen, 2023. "Bayesian analyses indicate bivalves did not drive the downfall of brachiopods following the Permian-Triassic mass extinction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.

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