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Future phytoplankton diversity in a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Stephanie A. Henson

    (National Oceanography Centre, European Way)

  • B. B. Cael

    (National Oceanography Centre, European Way)

  • Stephanie R. Allen

    (National Oceanography Centre, European Way
    University of Southampton, Waterfront Campus, European Way
    Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place)

  • Stephanie Dutkiewicz

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

The future response of marine ecosystem diversity to continued anthropogenic forcing is poorly constrained. Phytoplankton are a diverse set of organisms that form the base of the marine ecosystem. Currently, ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem models used for climate change projections typically include only 2−3 phytoplankton types and are, therefore, too simple to adequately assess the potential for changes in plankton community structure. Here, we analyse a complex ecosystem model with 35 phytoplankton types to evaluate the changes in phytoplankton community composition, turnover and size structure over the 21st century. We find that the rate of turnover in the phytoplankton community becomes faster during this century, that is, the community structure becomes increasingly unstable in response to climate change. Combined with alterations to phytoplankton diversity, our results imply a loss of ecological resilience with likely knock-on effects on the productivity and functioning of the marine environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie A. Henson & B. B. Cael & Stephanie R. Allen & Stephanie Dutkiewicz, 2021. "Future phytoplankton diversity in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25699-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25699-w
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    Cited by:

    1. João Brandão & Chelsea Weiskerger & Elisabete Valério & Tarja Pitkänen & Päivi Meriläinen & Lindsay Avolio & Christopher D. Heaney & Michael J. Sadowsky, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts on Microbiota in Beach Sand and Water: Looking Ahead," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Sauterey, Boris & Gland, Guillaume Le & Cermeño, Pedro & Aumont, Olivier & Lévy, Marina & Vallina, Sergio M., 2023. "Phytoplankton adaptive resilience to climate change collapses in case of extreme events – A modeling study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).
    3. Moscoso, Jordyn E. & Bianchi, Daniele & Stewart, Andrew L., 2022. "Controls and characteristics of biomass quantization in size-structured planktonic ecosystem models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 468(C).
    4. Occhipinti, Guido & Solidoro, Cosimo & Grimaudo, Roberto & Valenti, Davide & Lazzari, Paolo, 2023. "Marine ecosystem models of realistic complexity rarely exhibits significant endogenous non-stationary dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    5. Timothy M. Sturtz & Peter T. Jenkins & Renaud de Richter, 2022. "Environmental Impact Modeling for a Small-Scale Field Test of Methane Removal by Iron Salt Aerosols," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, October.

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