IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v12y2021i1d10.1038_s41467-021-21944-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the impact of curfews and other measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in French Guiana

Author

Listed:
  • Alessio Andronico

    (Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS)

  • Cécile Tran Kiem

    (Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS
    Sorbonne Université)

  • Juliette Paireau

    (Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS
    French National Public Health Agency)

  • Tiphanie Succo

    (French National Public Health Agency)

  • Paolo Bosetti

    (Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS)

  • Noémie Lefrancq

    (Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS)

  • Mathieu Nacher

    (Centre d’Investigation Clinique Antilles Guyane, CIC INSERM 1424, Centre Hospitalier Andrée Rosemon
    DFR Santé, Université de Guyane)

  • Félix Djossou

    (Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne)

  • Alice Sanna

    (Agence Régionale de Santé de Guyane)

  • Claude Flamand

    (Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS
    Institut Pasteur in French Guiana)

  • Henrik Salje

    (Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS
    University of Cambridge)

  • Cyril Rousseau

    (French National Public Health Agency)

  • Simon Cauchemez

    (Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS)

Abstract

While general lockdowns have proven effective to control SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, they come with enormous costs for society. It is therefore essential to identify control strategies with lower social and economic impact. Here, we report and evaluate the control strategy implemented during a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in June–July 2020 in French Guiana that relied on curfews, targeted lockdowns, and other measures. We find that the combination of these interventions coincided with a reduction in the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 from 1.7 to 1.1, which was sufficient to avoid hospital saturation. We estimate that thanks to the young demographics, the risk of hospitalisation following infection was 0.3 times that of metropolitan France and that about 20% of the population was infected by July. Our model projections are consistent with a recent seroprevalence study. The study showcases how mathematical modelling can be used to support healthcare planning in a context of high uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Andronico & Cécile Tran Kiem & Juliette Paireau & Tiphanie Succo & Paolo Bosetti & Noémie Lefrancq & Mathieu Nacher & Félix Djossou & Alice Sanna & Claude Flamand & Henrik Salje & Cyril Rousse, 2021. "Evaluating the impact of curfews and other measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in French Guiana," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21944-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21944-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21944-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-021-21944-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Samuel de Haas & Georg Goetz & Sven Heim, 2021. "Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related night curfews: Empirical evidence from Germany," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202118, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Apel, Johannes & Rohde, Niklas & Marcus, Jan, 2023. "The effect of a nighttime curfew on the spread of COVID-19," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Biswas, Debajyoti & Alfandari, Laurent, 2022. "Designing an optimal sequence of non‐pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1372-1391.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21944-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.