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Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Hofer

    (University of Oslo
    University of Liège)

  • Charlotte Lang

    (University of Liège)

  • Charles Amory

    (University of Liège)

  • Christoph Kittel

    (University of Liège)

  • Alison Delhasse

    (University of Liège)

  • Andrew Tedstone

    (University of Fribourg)

  • Xavier Fettweis

    (University of Liège)

Abstract

Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models. However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Hofer & Charlotte Lang & Charles Amory & Christoph Kittel & Alison Delhasse & Andrew Tedstone & Xavier Fettweis, 2020. "Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-20011-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20011-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Dániel Topál & Qinghua Ding & Thomas J. Ballinger & Edward Hanna & Xavier Fettweis & Zhe Li & Ildikó Pieczka, 2022. "Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Michelle R. McCrystall & Julienne Stroeve & Mark Serreze & Bruce C. Forbes & James A. Screen, 2021. "New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Carsten Bjerre Ludwigsen & Ole Baltazar Andersen & Ben Marzeion & Jan-Hendrik Malles & Hannes Müller Schmied & Petra Döll & Christopher Watson & Matt A. King, 2024. "Global and regional ocean mass budget closure since 2003," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Kyle S. Mattingly & Jenny V. Turton & Jonathan D. Wille & Brice Noël & Xavier Fettweis & Åsa K. Rennermalm & Thomas L. Mote, 2023. "Increasing extreme melt in northeast Greenland linked to foehn winds and atmospheric rivers," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

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