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Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Roelfsema

    (Utrecht University)

  • Heleen L. Soest

    (Utrecht University
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Mathijs Harmsen

    (Utrecht University
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Detlef P. Vuuren

    (Utrecht University
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Christoph Bertram

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Michel Elzen

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Niklas Höhne

    (Wageningen University & Research
    NewClimate Institute)

  • Gabriela Iacobuta

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Volker Krey

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Elmar Kriegler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Gunnar Luderer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Falko Ueckerdt

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Jacques Després

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3)

  • Laurent Drouet

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Via Bergognone, 34)

  • Johannes Emmerling

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Via Bergognone, 34)

  • Stefan Frank

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Oliver Fricko

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Matthew Gidden

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Climate Analytics, Ritterstrasse 3)

  • Florian Humpenöder

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Daniel Huppmann

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Kyoto University, C1-3, Kyotodaigaku-Katsura, Nishikyo-ku)

  • Kostas Fragkiadakis

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Keii Gi

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth)

  • Kimon Keramidas

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3)

  • Alexandre C. Köberle

    (COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
    Imperial College London)

  • Lara Aleluia Reis

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Via Bergognone, 34)

  • Pedro Rochedo

    (COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)

  • Roberto Schaeffer

    (COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)

  • Ken Oshiro

    (Kyoto University, C1-3, Kyotodaigaku-Katsura, Nishikyo-ku)

  • Zoi Vrontisi

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Wenying Chen

    (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University)

  • Gokul C. Iyer

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court)

  • Jae Edmonds

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court)

  • Maria Kannavou

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Kejun Jiang

    (Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, B1505)

  • Ritu Mathur

    (The Energy & Resources Institute (TERI), India Habitat Center)

  • George Safonov

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE))

  • Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan

    (Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad, Public Systems Group, Vastrapur
    National Institute for Environmental Studies)

Abstract

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Roelfsema & Heleen L. Soest & Mathijs Harmsen & Detlef P. Vuuren & Christoph Bertram & Michel Elzen & Niklas Höhne & Gabriela Iacobuta & Volker Krey & Elmar Kriegler & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Ria, 2020. "Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-15414-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6
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