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Extinction debts and colonization credits of non-forest plants in the European Alps

Author

Listed:
  • Sabine B. Rumpf

    (University of Vienna)

  • Karl Hülber

    (University of Vienna
    Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses)

  • Johannes Wessely

    (University of Vienna)

  • Wolfgang Willner

    (University of Vienna
    Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses)

  • Dietmar Moser

    (University of Vienna)

  • Andreas Gattringer

    (University of Vienna)

  • Günther Klonner

    (University of Vienna)

  • Niklaus E. Zimmermann

    (Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL
    Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH)

  • Stefan Dullinger

    (University of Vienna)

Abstract

Mountain plant species shift their elevational ranges in response to climate change. However, to what degree these shifts lag behind current climate change, and to what extent delayed extinctions and colonizations contribute to these shifts, are under debate. Here, we calculate extinction debt and colonization credit of 135 species from the European Alps by comparing species distribution models with 1576 re-surveyed plots. We find extinction debt in 60% and colonization credit in 38% of the species, and at least one of the two in 93%. This suggests that the realized niche of very few of the 135 species fully tracks climate change. As expected, extinction debts occur below and colonization credits occur above the optimum elevation of species. Colonization credits are more frequent in warmth-demanding species from lower elevations with lower dispersal capability, and extinction debts are more frequent in cold-adapted species from the highest elevations. Local extinctions hence appear to be already pending for those species which have the least opportunity to escape climate warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabine B. Rumpf & Karl Hülber & Johannes Wessely & Wolfgang Willner & Dietmar Moser & Andreas Gattringer & Günther Klonner & Niklaus E. Zimmermann & Stefan Dullinger, 2019. "Extinction debts and colonization credits of non-forest plants in the European Alps," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-12343-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12343-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Shengman Lyu & Jake M. Alexander, 2022. "Competition contributes to both warm and cool range edges," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Christine Howard & Emma-Liina Marjakangas & Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez & Pietro Milanesi & Aleksandre Abuladze & Karen Aghababyan & Vitalie Ajder & Volen Arkumarev & Dawn E. Balmer & Hans-Günther Bauer &, 2023. "Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

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