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A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets

Author

Listed:
  • E. E. Koks

    (University of Oxford
    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • J. Rozenberg

    (World Bank)

  • C. Zorn

    (University of Oxford)

  • M. Tariverdi

    (World Bank)

  • M. Vousdoukas

    (Joint European Research Centre (JRC)
    University of the Aegean)

  • S. A. Fraser

    (World Bank)

  • J. W. Hall

    (University of Oxford)

  • S. Hallegatte

    (World Bank)

Abstract

Transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards all around the world. Here we present the first global estimates of multi-hazard exposure and risk to road and rail infrastructure. Results reveal that ~27% of all global road and railway assets are exposed to at least one hazard and ~7.5% of all assets are exposed to a 1/100 year flood event. Global Expected Annual Damages (EAD) due to direct damage to road and railway assets range from 3.1 to 22 billion US dollars, of which ~73% is caused by surface and river flooding. Global EAD are small relative to global GDP (~0.02%). However, in some countries EAD reach 0.5 to 1% of GDP annually, which is the same order of magnitude as national transport infrastructure budgets. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that increasing flood protection would have positive returns on ~60% of roads exposed to a 1/100 year flood event.

Suggested Citation

  • E. E. Koks & J. Rozenberg & C. Zorn & M. Tariverdi & M. Vousdoukas & S. A. Fraser & J. W. Hall & S. Hallegatte, 2019. "A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-10442-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10442-3
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