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Ecological niche modelling does not support climatically-driven dinosaur diversity decline before the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction

Author

Listed:
  • Alfio Alessandro Chiarenza

    (Imperial College London)

  • Philip D. Mannion

    (Imperial College London
    University College London)

  • Daniel J. Lunt

    (University of Bristol)

  • Alex Farnsworth

    (University of Bristol)

  • Lewis A. Jones

    (Imperial College London)

  • Sarah-Jane Kelland

    (Getech)

  • Peter A. Allison

    (Imperial College London)

Abstract

In the lead-up to the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction, dinosaur diversity is argued to have been either in long-term decline, or thriving until their sudden demise. The latest Cretaceous (Campanian–Maastrichtian [83–66 Ma]) of North America provides the best record to address this debate, but even here diversity reconstructions are biased by uneven sampling. Here we combine fossil occurrences with climatic and environmental modelling to quantify latest Cretaceous North American dinosaur habitat. Ecological niche modelling shows a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian habitability decrease in areas with present-day rock-outcrop. However, a continent-wide projection demonstrates habitat stability, or even a Campanian-to-Maastrichtian increase, that is not preserved. This reduction of the spatial sampling window resulted from formation of the proto-Rocky Mountains and sea-level regression. We suggest that Maastrichtian North American dinosaur diversity is therefore likely to be underestimated, with the apparent decline a product of sampling bias, and not due to a climatically-driven decrease in habitability as previously hypothesised.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfio Alessandro Chiarenza & Philip D. Mannion & Daniel J. Lunt & Alex Farnsworth & Lewis A. Jones & Sarah-Jane Kelland & Peter A. Allison, 2019. "Ecological niche modelling does not support climatically-driven dinosaur diversity decline before the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-08997-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08997-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Lewis A. Jones & Philip D. Mannion & Alexander Farnsworth & Fran Bragg & Daniel J. Lunt, 2022. "Climatic and tectonic drivers shaped the tropical distribution of coral reefs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.

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