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Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections

Author

Listed:
  • Eui-Seok Chung

    (Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Axel Timmermann

    (Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Brian J. Soden

    (University of Miami)

  • Kyung-Ja Ha

    (Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Lei Shi

    (NOAA)

  • Viju O. John

    (EUMETSAT)

Abstract

A strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) over recent decades triggered an intense debate on the validity of model-projected weakening of the PWC in response to anthropogenic warming. However, limitations of in situ observations and reanalysis datasets have hindered an unambiguous attribution of PWC changes to either natural or anthropogenic causes. Here, by conducting a comprehensive analysis based on multiple independent observational records, including satellite observations along with a large ensemble of model simulations, we objectively determine the relative contributions of internal variability and anthropogenic warming to the emergence of long-term PWC trends. Our analysis shows that the satellite-observed changes differ considerably from the model ensemble-mean changes, but they also indicate substantially weaker strengthening than implied by the reanalyses. Furthermore, some ensemble members are found to reproduce the observed changes in the tropical Pacific. These findings clearly reveal a dominant role of internal variability on the recent strengthening of the PWC.

Suggested Citation

  • Eui-Seok Chung & Axel Timmermann & Brian J. Soden & Kyung-Ja Ha & Lei Shi & Viju O. John, 2019. "Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 405-412, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0446-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0446-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lu Dong & L. Ruby Leung & Fengfei Song & Jian Lu, 2021. "Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Savin Chand & Scott Power & Kevin Walsh & Neil Holbrook & Kathleen McInnes & Kevin Tory & Hamish Ramsay & Ron Hoeke & Anthony S. Kiem, 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Omid Alizadeh, 2022. "Amplitude, duration, variability, and seasonal frequency analysis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-15, October.
    4. Mingna Wu & Tianjun Zhou & Chao Li & Hongmei Li & Xiaolong Chen & Bo Wu & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang, 2021. "A very likely weakening of Pacific Walker Circulation in constrained near-future projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Sahil Sharma & Kyung-Ja Ha & Ryohei Yamaguchi & Keith B. Rodgers & Axel Timmermann & Eui-Seok Chung, 2023. "Future Indian Ocean warming patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Xiangbo Feng & Nicholas P. Klingaman & Kevin I. Hodges, 2021. "Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to changes in cyclone seasonality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.

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