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A projected decrease in lightning under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Declan L. Finney

    (The University of Edinburgh
    University of Leeds)

  • Ruth M. Doherty

    (The University of Edinburgh)

  • Oliver Wild

    (Lancaster University)

  • David S. Stevenson

    (The University of Edinburgh)

  • Ian A. MacKenzie

    (The University of Edinburgh)

  • Alan M. Blyth

    (University of Leeds)

Abstract

Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry1–3, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires 4 . Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century1,5–7, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging 8 . As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach 9 , and a new upward cloud ice flux (IFLUX) approach 10 that overcomes previous limitations. In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario. Differences are largest in the tropics, where most lightning occurs, with implications for the estimation of future changes in tropospheric ozone and methane, as well as differences in their radiative forcings. These results suggest that lightning schemes more closely related to cloud ice and microphysical processes are needed to robustly estimate future changes in lightning and atmospheric composition.

Suggested Citation

  • Declan L. Finney & Ruth M. Doherty & Oliver Wild & David S. Stevenson & Ian A. MacKenzie & Alan M. Blyth, 2018. "A projected decrease in lightning under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(3), pages 210-213, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0072-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0072-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Joop Age Harm Adema & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Panu Poutvaara, 2021. "Mobile Internet Access and the Desire to Emigrate," ifo Working Paper Series 365, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón & Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez & Heidi Huntrieser & Patrick Jöckel, 2023. "Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Sagarika Chandra & Praveen Kumar & Devendraa Siingh & I. Roy & N. Jeni Victor & A. K. Kamra, 2022. "Projection of lightning over South/South East Asia using CMIP5 models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 57-75, October.
    4. A. Mahmoudian & M. Gharaylou & R. Holzworth, 2021. "Detail study of time evolution of three thunderstorm events in Tehran area using observations and numerical simulations for lightning nowcasting," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1481-1508, November.

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