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The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Pattyn

    (Université libre de Bruxelles)

  • Catherine Ritz

    (Université Grenoble-Alpes/CNRS)

  • Edward Hanna

    (University of Lincoln)

  • Xylar Asay-Davis

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Rob DeConto

    (University of Massachusetts)

  • Gaël Durand

    (Université Grenoble-Alpes/CNRS)

  • Lionel Favier

    (Université libre de Bruxelles
    Université Grenoble-Alpes/CNRS)

  • Xavier Fettweis

    (Université de Liège)

  • Heiko Goelzer

    (Université libre de Bruxelles
    Utrecht University)

  • Nicholas R. Golledge

    (Victoria University of Wellington
    GNS Science, Avalon)

  • Peter Kuipers Munneke

    (Utrecht University)

  • Jan T. M. Lenaerts

    (University of Colorado)

  • Sophie Nowicki

    (NASA/GSFC)

  • Antony J. Payne

    (University of Bristol)

  • Alexander Robinson

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Hélène Seroussi

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Luke D. Trusel

    (Rowan University)

  • Michiel van den Broeke

    (Utrecht University)

Abstract

Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Pattyn & Catherine Ritz & Edward Hanna & Xylar Asay-Davis & Rob DeConto & Gaël Durand & Lionel Favier & Xavier Fettweis & Heiko Goelzer & Nicholas R. Golledge & Peter Kuipers Munneke & Jan T. M., 2018. "The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 1053-1061, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0305-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Chmielewska Anna & Sławiński Andrzej, 2021. "Climate crisis, central banks and the IMF reform," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(4), pages 7-27, December.

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