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Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity

Author

Listed:
  • Masahiro Watanabe

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Youichi Kamae

    (University of Tsukuba
    University of California San Diego)

  • Hideo Shiogama

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Anthony M. DeAngelis

    (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
    Science Systems and Applications)

  • Kentaroh Suzuki

    (University of Tokyo)

Abstract

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and hydrological sensitivity describe the global mean surface temperature and precipitation responses to a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Despite their connection via the Earth’s energy budget, the physical linkage between these two metrics remains controversial. Here, using a global climate model with a perturbed mean hydrological cycle, we show that ECS and hydrological sensitivity per unit warming are anti-correlated owing to the low-cloud response to surface warming. When the amount of low clouds decreases, ECS is enhanced through reductions in the reflection of shortwave radiation. In contrast, hydrological sensitivity is suppressed through weakening of atmospheric longwave cooling, necessitating weakened condensational heating by precipitation. These compensating cloud effects are also robustly found in a multi-model ensemble, and further constrained using satellite observations. Our estimates, combined with an existing constraint to clear-sky shortwave absorption, suggest that hydrological sensitivity could be lower by 30% than raw estimates from global climate models.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiro Watanabe & Youichi Kamae & Hideo Shiogama & Anthony M. DeAngelis & Kentaroh Suzuki, 2018. "Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(10), pages 901-906, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0272-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0272-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Xianan Jiang & Hui Su & Jonathan H. Jiang & J. David Neelin & Longtao Wu & Yoko Tsushima & Gregory Elsaesser, 2023. "Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Wenyu Zhou & L. Ruby Leung & Nicholas Siler & Jian Lu, 2023. "Future precipitation increase constrained by climatological pattern of cloud effect," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

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