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Time of emergence for regional sea-level change

Author

Listed:
  • Kewei Lyu

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship
    State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University)

  • Xuebin Zhang

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship)

  • John A. Church

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship)

  • Aimée B. A. Slangen

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship)

  • Jianyu Hu

    (State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University)

Abstract

This work investigates when the anthropogenic signal in regional sea-level rise will emerge from natural variability. Considering thermal expansion and changes in density and circulation, 50% of the global ocean will show an anthropogenic signal by the early-to-mid 2040s, whereas when all variables are considered, the anthropogenic signal will emerge in over 50% of the global ocean by 2020. This is substantially earlier than for surface air temperature and has little dependence on emissions scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Kewei Lyu & Xuebin Zhang & John A. Church & Aimée B. A. Slangen & Jianyu Hu, 2014. "Time of emergence for regional sea-level change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1006-1010, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:4:y:2014:i:11:d:10.1038_nclimate2397
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2397
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tian-Yuan Huang & Liangping Ding & Yong-Qiang Yu & Lei Huang & Liying Yang, 2023. "From AR5 to AR6: exploring research advancement in climate change based on scientific evidence from IPCC WGI reports," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(9), pages 5227-5245, September.
    2. Jennifer S. Walker & Robert E. Kopp & Christopher M. Little & Benjamin P. Horton, 2022. "Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. M. Carson & A. Köhl & D. Stammer & A. B. A. Slangen & C. A. Katsman & R. S. W. van de Wal & J. Church & N. White, 2016. "Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 269-281, January.
    5. Wanyun Shao & Hamed Moftakhari & Hamid Moradkhani, 2020. "Comparing public perceptions of sea level rise with scientific projections across five states of the U.S. Gulf Coast region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 317-335, November.
    6. M. Carson & A. Köhl & D. Stammer & A. A. Slangen & C. Katsman & R. W. van de Wal & J. Church & N. White, 2016. "Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 269-281, January.

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