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2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C

Author

Listed:
  • Joeri Rogelj

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • David L. McCollum

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Brian C. O’Neill

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Graz University of Technology)

Abstract

This paper presents a systematic scenario analysis of how different levels of short-term 2020 emissions would impact the technological and economic feasibility of achieving the 2 °C target in the long term. We find that although a relatively wide range of emissions in 2020—from 41 to 55 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO2e yr−1)—may preserve the option of meeting a 2 °C target, the size of this ‘feasibility window’ strongly depends on the prospects of key energy technologies, and in particular on the effectiveness of efficiency measures to limit the growth of energy demand. A shortfall of critical technologies—either for technological or socio-political reasons—would narrow the feasibility window, if not close it entirely. Targeting lower 2020 emissions levels of 41–47 Gt CO2e yr−1 would allow the 2 °C target to be achieved under a wide range of assumptions, and thus help to hedge against the risks of long-term uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Joeri Rogelj & David L. McCollum & Brian C. O’Neill & Keywan Riahi, 2013. "2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 405-412, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:4:d:10.1038_nclimate1758
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1758
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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Jinxiu & Lu, Zhe & Yu, Chin-Hsien, 2022. "Environmental information disclosure and firms’ green innovation: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 147-159.
    2. Ismael Mohammed Saeed & Ahmad Tarkhany & Younis Hama & Shwan Al-Shatri, 2023. "Environmental considerations, sustainability opportunities and Iraqi government’s energy policies: a comparative study," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6879-6895, July.

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