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The emerging human influence on the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature

Author

Listed:
  • Jia-Rui Shi

    (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

  • Benjamin D. Santer

    (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
    University of California Los Angeles)

  • Young-Oh Kwon

    (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

  • Susan E. Wijffels

    (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

Abstract

Gaining insight into anthropogenic influence on seasonality is of scientific, economic and societal importance. Here we show that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) has emerged from the noise of natural variability. Geographical patterns of changes in SST seasonal cycle amplitude (SSTAC) reveal two distinctive features: an increase at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes related to mixed-layer depth changes and a robust dipole pattern between 40° S and 55° S that is mainly driven by surface wind changes. The model-predicted pattern of SSTAC change is identifiable with high statistical confidence in four observed SST products and in 51 individual model realizations of historical climate evolution. Simulations with individual forcings reveal that GHG increases are the primary driver of changes in SSTAC, with smaller but distinct contributions from anthropogenic aerosol and ozone forcing. The robust human ‘fingerprint’ identified here is likely to have wide-ranging impacts on marine ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Jia-Rui Shi & Benjamin D. Santer & Young-Oh Kwon & Susan E. Wijffels, 2024. "The emerging human influence on the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(4), pages 364-372, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-024-01958-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-01958-8
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